Teague Hopkins

Mindful Product Management

Risk

The Three Biggest Risks to Your Startup

Starting any new venture is risky. Before we can limit or manage the risk, we have to understand it.

Most startup (or new product) risk can be divided into three buckets:

  1. Tech Risk
  2. Market Risk
  3. Ego Risk

Tech Risk

Tech risk is what entrepreneurs (or intrapreneurs, for those starting something within an existing structure) most often think about when starting a new venture. Can I build this thing? Is it scalable? Do I have enough servers? The irony is that, especially for consumer web startups, this risk is usually negligible. Most web startups aren’t doing anything that hasn’t been done before, unless it involves patentable algorithms. It may not be easy, but there’s high certainty that it can be done, given sufficient resources.

Market Risk

Market risk is the antithesis of the idea that “if you build it, they will come.” Do people have this problem? If we can deliver the solution, will people even want it? Can we reach the people who will buy this product? Do people believe that our solution is credible? Entrepreneurs should be thinking carefully about market risk.

Ego Risk

The final type of risk facing any new venture is ego risk – and it’s probably the most important and the least discussed type of risk. Ego risk is the chance that an entrepreneur can’t get out of her or his own way, pay attention to the data, overcome cognitive biases, and avoid falling prey to a reality distortion field.

With so much risk, it’s a wonder any new venture survives (many of them don’t). But researchers and entrepreneurs have worked hard on each of these types of risks, and there are strategies for ameliorating each one.

Tech Risk + Agile

Tech risk is often mitigated with some implementation of Agile methodologies. I sat down with Agile expert Elliot Susel to ask him how entrepreneurs can get started with Agile. Listen to that interview here:  See the Full Transcript.

Market Risk + Lean Startup

Minimizing market risk is the driving force behind much of the lean startup movement. By making a set of small bets in the form of lightweight experiments, entrepreneurs can validate market demand before investing in building a system to deliver a solution or product. Plus, talking to customers often helps entrepreneurs identify problems they had not originally imagined. Sometimes those new problems are more pressing for the customer, and lead to a new product with less market risk.

Ego Risk + ?

Ego risk is the final and most difficult hurdle. There’s no clear-cut answer to this challenge. Religions and philosophers have been focused on ego for millennia. But a meditation or mindfulness practice can be particularly useful in helping us step back from our impulsive reactions to external stimuli (e.g. data that challenges our preconceived notions, particularly if our self-worth is invested in being right, or in one particular self-image.)

Of course, even a zen-master-like separation from the ego doesn’t completely protect us from cognitive biases, nor does a higher IQ or more awareness of these effects. In fact, there is some evidence to suggest a correlation between higher IQ and higher susceptibility to cognitive biases. We don’t yet have any proven methods for overcoming biases, but the Wikipedia page on mitigation is very interesting reading, and a good starting point for learning more.

Startup Risk and the Ego

Usually when we talk about risk at a lean startup event, it goes something like this:

Slackline by Remy Saglier - DOUBLERAY

There are two types of risk: market risk and technological risk.
Agile methodologies are used to reduce technological risk, and lean startup (and customer development) helps reduce market risk.

The discussion continues when someone adds:

Web startups don’t really have technological risk. We know we can build it. We don’t know if anyone wants it.
Biotech companies typically have tech risk, but no market risk. Everyone wants a cure for cancer, but we don’t know how to build it (yet).

But I found myself in the middle of a very interesting conversation at last week’s DC Lean Startup Circle. We were talking about a third type of risk that is critical for startups, what Ben Willman calls “ego risk.”

From what I’ve seen, the vast majority of people working in startups have a tendency to want our work to be as good as possible before we show it to people. This instinct runs counter to the concept of a Minimum Viable Product.

We all get attached to our clever solutions, sometimes even after we’ve discovered that they solve the wrong problem (or no problem at all). Ego is why we get attached to our solutions and stop questioning, and why we want to avoid customers until it’s perfect. It’s why we conflate our sense of self-worth with the success of our product or startup.

Ben Horowitz (of Andreessen Horowitz) has written that the most difficult skill for CEOs is to manage their own psychology. He also points out that it’s almost taboo to talk about personal psychology. It’s too easy for founders or CEOs to get in their own way and prevent themselves from executing with objectivity and mindfulness.

We talk about the technical and market risks facing a startup. Why don’t we talk about this more important risk? We need to acknowledge and address ego risk.

Startups have tech risk (can we build it?), market risk (will they buy it?), and ego risk (can I get out of my own way?).

If you want to join the conversation, come check out Ben Willman’s presentation on the subject at the next DC Lean Startup Circle.

It’s Time for Nonprofits to Get Lean

Want to change the world, but have limited time and money at your disposal? Join the club.

You can’t drive change if you pour your heart and soul into an inefficient engine. You need to get lean.

Nonprofits and social movements need to learn from the lean methodology, or risk wasting resources and throwing away the most precious commodity, attention. The principle of lean methodology is to produce maximum value with the minimum amount of wasted resources, and nonprofits are often guilty of failing this test.

You’re not always building something for your constituents. Whales don’t use web apps.

Nonprofits have a vision of a better world, and a theory of how to remake this world into the one they envision. For a nonprofit, the goal is change, and waste is any resource spent that doesn’t help achieve that change.

Is Occupy Wall Street a Lean Nonprofit?
Occupy Wall St. has garnered a lot of attention, but is it lean?
 Photo by Bob Jagendorf

Waste can cost you money or human resources, but when your goal is change, waste can also squander attention. If your organization is getting attention and failing to use that to drive change, you are wasting attention.

In an era of nonprofit proliferation, it is even more important that nonprofits learn to be lean. Attention is a finite resource. If your organization or movement is getting attention, some other organization is not. If two nonprofits are competing for attention around a specific issue, the problem becomes even more pronounced. If you capture attention but don’t turn it into change, you are not only wasting the attention, but you are preventing another organization from catalyzing that attention into change.

Don’t just demand attention. Create change.

The Origins of Lean

The lean methodology began in the manufacturing industry. The basic principle is to produce an increment of value with as little waste as possible. In manufacturing, an increment of value is a high-quality physical good. Waste takes many forms – including defects in production, excess inventory, unnecessary processing, and rework.

The lean startup movement, pioneered by Eric Ries, applies these principles to the startup community. In a lean startup, value takes a different form. To paraphrase Steve Blank, a startup is an organization searching for a business model. Since the purpose of the organization is to discover something, not to create a product, the increment of value is validated learning. Startups create value by testing assumptions and proving or disproving hypotheses. After the business model and growth model are validated, the business ceases to be a startup, and can focus on scaling.

[For a good introduction, checkout Ries’s book, The Lean Startup]

Lean for Nonprofits

Nonprofits and social movements are another animal. They still need to reduce waste – but value lies neither in validating hypotheses (unless the nonprofit also happens to be a startup, a topic for another post) nor in producing physical goods. You’re not always building something for your constituents. Whales don’t use web apps.

For a lean startups, it’s about learning. For a lean nonprofit, it’s about impact. Lean nonprofits create increments of value by enacting, provoking, or inspiring change with as little waste as possible.

It’s time for nonprofits to be more lean.

Less waste, more change.

Want to learn more? Let THG help you change the way you change the world.

[button size=”large” color=”#61BFD6″ link=/contact-us]Contact Us[/button]